Highlights
Dam planning and hydrological alterations in the Mekong
Several countries in the Mekong River basin are caught in the tension between ensuring cheap power security, exploiting locally-available hydropower resources, and protecting ecosystems from the impact of dams. Are there options for addressing the trade-off between these conflicting objectives?
We show that dam re-operation efforts could yield tangible opportunities for partially restoring key elements of hydrological variability without affecting hydropower production. In fact, changing production plans across a few critical dams could even raise hydropower revenues.
We also focussed on the planned expansion of the hydropower fleet and show that Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia have tangible opportunities for meeting projected electricity demand and CO2 emission targets with less hydropower than currently planned. The key enabling strategies for these options to succeed are solar energy and regional coordination, expressed in the form of centralized planning and cross-border power trading.
Key publications and software
- Galelli, S., Dang, T.D., Ng, J.Y., Chowdhury, A.F.M.K., Arias, M.E. (2022) Opportunities to curb hydrological alterations via dam re-operation in the Mekong. Nature Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00971-z. Higlighted
- Siala, K., Chowdhury, K., Dang, T.D., Galelli, S. (2021) Solar energy and regional coordination as a feasible alternative to large hydropower in Southeast Asia. Nature Communications, 12, 4159, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24437-6.
- VIC-Res, PowNet
The Greater Mekong’s climate-water-energy nexus
Spatially-coherent droughts are a major threat to the proper functioning of Southeast Asia’s power supply and decarbonization policies, all depending on hydropower supply and long-distance power transfers.
Here, we focus on the Laotian-Thai grid—the largest power infrastructure in the region—for which we developed a model representing the relationship between hydro-climatological conditions, water availability, and power system behavior.
We show that prolonged droughts in the Mekong basin reduce hydropower production by about 4,000 GWh/ year, increasing the annual production costs and CO2 emissions by about US$ 120 millions and 2.5 million metric tonnes, respectively. These events are largely explained by the periodic oscillations in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that modulate water availability in Southeast Asia. Our findings can help reduce the carbon footprint of power systems and inform the design of hydroelectric dams.
Key publications and software
- Chowdhury, K., Dang, T.D., Nguyen, H.T.T., Koh, R., Galelli, S. (2021) The Greater Mekong’s climate-water-energy nexus: how ENSO-triggered regional droughts affect power supply and CO2 emissions. Earth’s Future, 9(3), e2020EF001814. Highlighted
- Chowdhury, K., Dang, T.D., Bagchi, A., Galelli, S. (2020) Expected benefits of Laos’ hydropower development curbed by hydro-climatic variability and limited transmission capacity—opportunities to reform. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 146(10),05020019. 2021 Best Policy-Oriented Paper Award
- VIC-Res, PowNet
Eight centuries of Asia’s river patterns
Ten of the world’s biggest rivers are located entirely within the Asian Monsoon region. They provide water, energy, and food for 1.7 billion people. To manage these critical resources, we need a better understanding of river discharge—how does it change over a long time? Are there common variation patterns among rivers?
To answer these questions, we use information derived from tree rings to reconstruct average annual river discharge history at 62 gauges in 16 Asian countries. Our reconstruction reveals the riparian footprint of megadroughts and large volcanic eruptions over the past eight centuries. We show that simultaneous droughts and pluvials have often occurred at adjacent river basins in the past, because Asian rivers share common influences from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. We also show how these oceanic teleconnections change over space and time.
Key publications and software
- Nguyen, H.T.T., Turner, S.W.D., Buckley, B., Galelli, S. (2020) Coherent streamflow variability in Monsoon Asia over the past eight centuries—links to oceanic drivers. Water Resources Research, 56, e2020WR027883. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027883.
- Nguyen, H.T.T., Galelli, S. (2018). A linear dynamical systems approach to streamflow reconstruction reveals history of regime shifts in northern Thailand. Water Resources Research, 54 (3), 2057-2077.
- ldsr R package
Towards monthly streamflow reconstructions
Long records of river discharge, reconstructed from tree rings, help us understand how rivers behaved in response to past climates, and place projected climate changes in a broader perspective. While this knowledge is valuable, streamflow reconstructions have rarely been used to directly inform water management models, because tree rings are annual while water system models require streamflow data of higher resolutions, such as monthly or weekly.
In our study, we use a rich network of tree ring data, consisting of both ring widths and stable oxygen isotope ratios, to reconstruct monthly river discharge at four key gauging stations that represent the four main tributaries of the Chao Phraya River, Thailand, thus bridging the gap between tree rings and water management. Our reconstructions, spanning 254 years (1750–2003), are the first monthly streamflow reconstructions outside North America, and the first ones that combine ring width and oxygen isotope data. Importantly, the reconstructions provide a detailed accounting of past droughts, pluvials, and wet season timings.
Key publications and software
- Nguyen, H.T.T., Galelli, S., Xu, C., Buckley, B. (2022) Droughts, Pluvials, and Wet Season Timing across the Chao Phraya River Basin:¨a 254-Year Monthly Reconstruction from Tree Rings and δ18O. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(17), e2022GL100442.
- Nguyen, H.T.T., Galelli, S., Xu, C., Buckley, B. (2021) Multi-Proxy, Multi-Season Streamflow Reconstruction with Mass Balance Adjustment. Water Resources Research, 57, e2020WR029394.
- mbr R package, VIC-Res
A workbench for studying smart water networks
Numerical simulation models are a fundamental tool for planning and managing smart water networks—an evolution of water distribution systems in which physical assets are monitored and controlled by information and communication technologies. While simulation models allow us to understand the interactions between physical processes and abstract control strategies, they ignore key implementation aspects of distributed control systems, such as the required communication over digital links.
In this work, we fill this gap by introducing DHALSIM (Digital HydrAuLic SIMulator), a numerical modelling platform combining EPANET-based process simulation with a network and host emulation environment, offering a high-fidelity representation of the processes occurring in the cyber domain. We also illustrate how DHALSIM enables research opportunities in the domain of cyber-physical security.
Key publications and software
- Murillo, A., Taormina, R., Tippenhauer, N.O., Salaorni, D., van Dijk, R., Jonker, L., Vos, S., Weyns, M., Galelli, S. (2023) High-fidelity Cyber and Physical Simulation of Water Distribution Systems. Part 1: Models and Data. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 149(5), 04023009.
- Murillo, A., Taormina, R., Tippenhauer, N.O., Galelli, S. (2023) High-fidelity Cyber and Physical Simulation of Water Distribution Systems. Part 2: Enabling Cyber-Physical Attack Localization. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 149(5), 04023010.
- DHALSIM
Characterizing cyber-physical attacks on water distribution systems
This is a pivotal project in the domain of urban water, as it exposed for the first time the risks associated to cyber-attacks on water distribution systems.
In the course of this project, we developed epanetCPA (the first software simulating the impact of attacks on water networks), organized the BATADAL (an international data competition to benchmark the performance of attack detection algorithms), and reconstructed a recent history of cyber-attacks on water infrastructures.
Key publications and software
- Hassanzadeh, A., Rasekh, A., Galelli, S., Aghashahi, M., Taormina, R., Ostfeld, A., Banks, K. (2020) A Review of Cyber Security Incidents in the Water Sector. Journal of Environmental Engineering. 146(5), 03120003.
- Douglas, H.C., Taormina, R., Galelli, S. (2019) Pressure-driven modelling of cyber-physical attacks on water distribution systems. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 145(3), 06019001.
- Taormina, R., Galelli, S. (2018) A deep learning approach to the detection and localization of cyber-physical attacks on water distribution systems. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 144(10): 04018065. 2019 Best Research-Oriented Paper Award
- Taormina, R., Galelli, S., Tippenhauer, N.O., Salomon, E., Ostfeld, A, Eliades, D. … Ohar, Z. (2018) The battle of the attack detection algorithms: disclosing cyber attacks on water distribution networks. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 144(8), 04018048.
- Taormina, R., Galelli, S., Tippenhauer, N.O., Salomon, E., Ostfeld, A. (2017) Characterising cyber-physical attacks on water distribution systems. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 143(5), 04017009. Video
- epanetCPA, aeed